EURUSD: a big reversal today ahead of the ECB later in the week. The post NFP squeeze to 1.0630 feels like a eternity ago now and was the last impulsive move in the unwind of positioning that had been persistent for the best part of two weeks. As we mentioned at the time, the price action is encouraging from a short EURUSD perspective. Positioning now we’re back at 1.05 feels much lighter than two weeks ago when we were trading at the same level. Risks into the ECB also feels skewed towards a dovish outcome with the market more sensitive to dovish communication. As EURUSD trades lower the market once again feels underweight on downside exposure and may have to stop back into the position if we continue. Short term support: 1.0460 to 1.0470